查看星期日, 7 12月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Dec 07 1241 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
07 Dec 2014	127	015
08 Dec 2014	122	009
09 Dec 2014	120	006

公告

The solar activity is rather low, and the strongest flare during last 24 hours was a C3.7 flare (peaked at 13:52 UT on December 6) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). We expect C-class flares in the coming hours. An issolated M-class flare is possible from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which is currently situated close to the west solar limb (S20W70). The strong flaring activity originating from this active region might be accompanied with the proton event. Therefore, we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The Earth is currently inside of a fast solar wind with the speed of about 690 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 7nT. The fast solar wind originating from the large polar coronal hole with the extent to the low latitudes (up to about S40) arrived at the Earth yesterday, as expected. The concurrent slow increase of the solar wind speed, density and the interplanetary magnetic field which started early on December 6, indicate strong compression region in front of the fast flow. Decrease of density and strong increase of the solar wind speed and temperature (observed at about 16:00 UT on December 6), indicate arrival of the fast flow itself. The maximum solar wind speed of about 800 km/s was observed this morning. The highest value of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of about 25nT, was recorded at about 15:00 UT on December 6. Due to arrival of the fast flow we observed few intervals of negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -14 nT at about 18:30 UT on December 6), which induced active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions from about 18:00 UT on December 6 until early this morning (the local station at Dourbes and Izmiran reported values of K=4, and NOAA reported one interval of Kp=5). We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：043，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 06 Dec 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	013
估計國際太陽黑子數	044 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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