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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Feb 14 1356 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Feb 2014	162	007
15 Feb 2014	163	028
16 Feb 2014	160	014

Bulletin

The solar activity is still high. The strongest of three M-class flares in past 24 hours was the M2.3 flare originating from the Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974). The flare peaked at 02:57 UT on February 14, and was associated with coronal dimming and EIT wave. The currently available data do not show an associated CME. The M1.4 flare peaked at 15:57 UT on February 13 was associated with the coronal dimming, EIT wave and partial halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:36 UT, had angular width of about 250 degrees and projected plane of the sky speed of about 450 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). We expect this CME to arrive at the Earth on February 17. The full halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 08:48 UT on February 14 was associated with the flare from the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) currently at W150. Due to the CME source region position on the far side of the Sun, the CME will not arrive at the Earth and will therefore have no geomagnetic consequences. The Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974) still has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect C-class and M-class flares, and possibly also an isolated X-class flare. Due to position of this sunspot group (approaching to West solar limb) we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside the slow solar wind with the speed of 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable and its current value is about 5nT. The low-latitude coronal hole (between N20 and N40) in the northern hemisphere has reached the central meridian yesterday evening. The associated fast flow is expected at the Earth late on February 16 or early on February 17. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours and active to minor storm conditions on February 15 and 16 due to arrival of CMEs from February 11, February 12 and February 13.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 089, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Feb 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	169
10cm sluneční tok	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	001
Odhadovaný Ap	001
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	108 - Na základě 16 stanic

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