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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Aug 21 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
21 Aug 2015	105	009
22 Aug 2015	106	008
23 Aug 2015	107	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has increased over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dkc/Type:Beta-Gamma) showing significant flux emergence, and producing two M-class flares; a M1.2 flare peaking at 02:18 UT and a M1.4 flare peaking at 09:50 UT. The Sun also produced two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs); a slow CME first observed from beyond the south west limb at 02:48 UT on 20-Aug-2015, and a more energetic event from beyond the the north east limb at 10:12 UT on 20-Aug-2015. Both are believed to be back-sided and will not interact with the Earth. No evident Earth directed CMEs were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing C-class flares with the possibility of M and X-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from 500 km/s to 450 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength has been decreasing from 9 nT to 5 nT, and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -6 nT and +6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions varied between quiet and active over the past 24 hours, with the local K index (Dourbes) reaching 3 and the Kp index (NOAA) reaching 4 yesterday (2015-Aug-20), these conditions were possibly caused by a coronal hole (CH) located in the north-west region of the sun. The solar wind speed and IMF strength, as recorded by ACE, have both been decreasing and the geomagnetic field is expected to exhibit quiet levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 079, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 20 Aug 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	064 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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