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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Aug 22 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 Aug 2015	115	008
23 Aug 2015	118	010
24 Aug 2015	122	008

Bulletin

Solar activity remained enhanced over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dkc/Type:Beta-Gamma) showing continued flux emergence, and producing several C-class flares and two M-class flares; an M1.1 class flare on 2015-Aug-21 peaking at 20:34 UT, and an M1.2 flare on 2015-Aug-22 peaking at 06:49 UT. An earlier M1.4 class flare produced by AR 2403, peaking at 09:48 UT, had an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Although there was evidence of a dimming on the Sun, the extent of the CME became apparent as LASCO observations became available. At the time the AR was located at S17E26, and the CME was largely directed to the south east, and is not expected to significantly interact with the Earth, the CME had a speed of 297 km/s, and if a small component was to reach the Earth it would be expected to arrive on 2015-Aug-26 at 07:00 UT. AR 2404 (Macintosh:Cro/Type:Beta) emerged yesterday and has shown some evidence of growth, but still remains small. No other evident Earth directed CMEs were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing C-class flares with the possibility of M and X-class flares. The solar wind speed, as recorded by the ACE satellite, has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from roughly 460 km/s to 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, as recorded by the ACE satellite, has been around 5 nT, and the Bz component was largely fluctuating between -5 nT and +5 nT yesterday (2015-Aug-21) but has been largely negative over the past 10 hours, around -4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions varied between quiet and moderate over the past 24 hours, with the local (Dourbes) K-index reaching 3 and the NOAA K-index reaching 2. There is currently a small coronal hole located at S15W45 which may increase solar wind speeds. The low solar wind speed, combined with the low magnitude Southward Bz indicates that geomagnetic activity should be small with possible low level enhancements over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 069, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 Aug 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	077 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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