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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Aug 24 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Aug 2015	133	017
25 Aug 2015	133	040
26 Aug 2015	139	013

Bulletin

Solar activity remains dominated by NOAA AR 2403 which produced an M5.6 flare this morning peaking at 7:33UT. The flare was associated with radio bursts detected at the Humain station. The region maintains its complex beta-gamma-delta configuration and continues to grow. Further, large flaring at M level can be expected from this region with also a chance for X flaring. As the region is now transitting the Western hemisphere large flaring from this region could possibly also cause a proton event. In SDO imagery there is evidence of material movement associated to the M5.6 flare but no significant dimming is seen. The only coronagraph data available at the time of writing is a STEREO A/COR2 movie lasting from 8:41UT to 11:11UT in which there is no obvious sign of a halo CME. We are awaiting the arrival of SoHO/C2 coronagraph data to properly exclude any possible related Earth-directed CME.

Solar wind conditions saw the decline of the high speed stream from the positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. Speeds decreased from a peak of 600 km/s to around 480 km/s currently. Total magnetic field declined to a nominal value around 4 nT with Bz variable. Some periods of active geomagnetic conditions were recorded in the UT afternoon of August 24 (local K Dourbes 2-4, NOAA Kp 2-3). Solar wind speeds are expected to decline further but may increase again by the arrival of the August 21/22 CME's, possibly later today or early tomorrow. Active geomagnetic conditions to possibly minor storm conditions may be associated.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 078, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Aug 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	025
Odhadovaný Ap	028
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	075 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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