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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Sep 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Sep 2015	110	029
21 Sep 2015	115	029
22 Sep 2015	115	017

Bulletin

A new active region (NOAA 2420) rounded the northeast limb and produced the strongest flare of the period, an M1.5 flare peaking at 05:03UT. Based on some scarce SOHO and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery, no coronal mass ejection (CME) seems to be associated to this event. The group's proximity to the limb currently hampers an accurate assessment of its magnetic configuration. The other sunspot regions were stable and relatively quiet, NOAA 2419 and NOAA 2415 producing resp. 1 and 2 low-level C-class flares.

C-class flares are expected, with a good chance on another M-class flare.

After the passing of the brief negative sector boundary ("toward" phi angle) on 19 September, solar wind speed gradually increased from about 400 km/s to 450 km/s early this morning. A shock in the solar wind speed was observed at 05:27UT, with an abrupt increase to 550 km/s. After that, solar wind speed oscillated between mostly 500 and 600 km/s. The source of the disturbance is most likely the earlier than expected arrival of the 18 September coronal mass ejection (CME). Bz initially turned sharply negative with values up to -18 nT. Since about 06:00UT Bz varies between +7 and -12 nT, being predominantly negative. This resulted in strong geomagnetic storming, with the planetary K-index reaching 7 (major storm) and the local K Dourbes at 5 (minor storm).

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a good chance on another minor storming episode in the wake of the solar wind disturbance.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 062, na základě 22 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Sep 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	061 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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