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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Aug 28 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Aug 2015	115	041
29 Aug 2015	115	021
30 Aug 2015	110	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low with AR 2403 producing a number of C flares this morning. The largest one peaked at 2:51UT at C8 level. The new region in the South-East was numbered 2405. Larger flaring at M level from region 2403 remains fairly likely. The associated warning condition for proton events is maintained. No Earth-directed CME's were recorded in coronagraph data. While solar wind speed continued to drop from around 350 km/s to around 335 km/s, total magnetic field remained elevated to levels in the 10-15nT range with Bz mainly negative and extended periods of pronounced negative values down to -13nT. Yesterday afternoon saw the anticipated sector boundary crossing into the towards sector. The negative Bz values caused unsettled to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions (local K Dourbes 3-6, NOAA Kp 4-6). Solar wind speed is expected to rise under the influence of a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. Elevated solar wind conditions are hence expected to continue over the first days before subsiding. Consequently, unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 043, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Aug 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	056
AK Wingst	041
Odhadovaný Ap	047
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	055 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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