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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Aug 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Aug 2015	110	016
30 Aug 2015	106	013
31 Aug 2015	102	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two M flares from region 2403 in adiition to several C flares from that region. An M2.2 flare peaked at 13:16UT and another M2.1 flare peaked at 19:03UT. Flaring at M level remains likely from this region with a possibility for an X flare. There remains also an associated risk for a proton event. Solar flaring activity will afterwards decrease as the region is about to round the West limb two days from now. No significant Earth directed CME's were recorded. Solar wind conditions indicated the arrival of the expected high speed stream influence. Solar wind speed increased from about 340 km/s at the start of the period to within the 420-480 km/s range. Total magnetic field first increased up to a peak of 17nT while a pronounced negative Bz persisted, before around 18:00UT a steady decrease towards presently 7-8nT set in along with a more variable Bz and a temperature increase. Quiet to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions were recorded. Local K Dourbes attained at most active levels (K=4 in the first halve of the period) while the planetary NOAA Kp reached 6 also in the first halve of the period. Solar wind speed is expected to first remain elevated before starting a decline towards nominal values while also the decrease in total magnetic field is expected to continue. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are thus expected with a possibility for episodes of active conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 057, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Aug 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	042
AK Wingst	034
Odhadovaný Ap	038
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	042 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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