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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Aug 30 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Aug 2016	086	008
31 Aug 2016	088	022
01 Sep 2016	091	011

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.1 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2583 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing the C1.1 class flare, which peaked at 17:36 UT yesterday. All other ARs have shown low levels of activity. AR 2583 still shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations which may increase flaring activity, however, the region is approaching the West solar limb. A filament channel located between N30W15 and N15W60 was observed to lift off around 19:00 UT yesterday in SDO/AIA 304 observations. The eruption did not produce a clear Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) signature in coronagraph observations, but there were significant data gaps in imagery. There is some evidence of a small CME moving off to West, which will have a small impact on the Earth system. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a chance of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed has increased from around 330 to 425 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has increased from around 5 nT to 10 nT. The Bz component has oscillated between positive and negative, fluctuating between -8 and +10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small trans-equatorial coronal hole located at central latitudes, N01W60, created enhanced solar wind speeds at Earth due to its associated high-speed stream (HSS), which are expected to persist throughout the day and may enhance geomagnetic activity. A large positive polarity Northern polar coronal hole located near central longitudes extending toward low latitudes is expected to enhance solar wind speeds in the coming days. As a consequence the geomagnetic activity is expected to be slightly enhanced today and again later in the week. The small filament eruption discussed above is expected to move to the West and avoid the Earth system.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 078, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Aug 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	068 - Na základě 24 stanic

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