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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Nov 07 1244 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Nov 2020	094	006
08 Nov 2020	094	007
09 Nov 2020	094	007

Bulletin

The sunspot region (Catania sunspot group 50, NOAA-AR 2781) has continued to show some flaring activities, including a C1.8-class flare peaking at 06:16 UTC on November 7. The flaring activity is expected to continue with C-class flare coming from NOAA-AR 2781, and with a small chance of M-class flare. Erratum: The Ursigram issued on November 06 mentioned a "C9.0-class flare peaking at 21:56 UTC on November 5". This was incorrect, the biggest flare for that period was a C2.8-class flare peaking at 00:05 UTC on November 6. The biggest flare for that specific region remained so far the C7.3-class flare peaking at 00:22 UTC on November 5.

No Earth directed coronal mass ejections was observed in the available coronagraphic imagery in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electrons flux remained just below the 10^3 pfu threshold. The electrons flux may cross slightly be above the 10^3 pfu during the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under the influence of the solar wind streams affected by the presence of the south polar coronal hole (negative polarity). The solar wind parameters (DSCOVR) showed slightly enhanced values, with the solar wind speed around 500 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching 7.9 nT, and the Bz magnetic field components fluctuating between -4.3 nT and 7.0 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced today due to the influence of the solar wind coming from the south coronal hole.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet. In response to the slight enhanced solar wind parameters one period of unsettled conditions was also observed in Kp-NOAA index (15:00-18:00 UTC on November 6) and several periods of unsettled conditions were observed in K-Dourbes index. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible periods of unsettled conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 034, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Nov 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	044
10cm sluneční tok	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	036 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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