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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Nov 08 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Nov 2020	091	006
09 Nov 2020	090	005
10 Nov 2020	089	004

Bulletin

The sunspot region (Catania sunspot group 50, NOAA-AR 2781) has continued to show some flaring activities, including a C5.7-class flare peaking at 05:18 UTC on November 8. The flaring activity is expected to continue with C-class flare coming from NOAA-AR 2781, and with a small chance of M-class flare.

A very fainted coronal dimming was observed on November 7 at 12:21 UTC around 11 degree longitude and 20 degree latitude in the region Catania sunspot group 51, NOAA-AR 2780. However, no coronal mass ejections was visible in the coronagraphic imagery. Due to the limited observation of this fainted event, we may expected a possible coronal structure reaching Earth in about 4-5 days, with a very mild or even no impact.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electrons flux remained just below the 10^3 pfu threshold. The electrons flux may cross slightly be above the 10^3 pfu during the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under the influence of the solar wind streams coming from the south polar coronal hole (negative polarity). The solar wind parameters (DSCOVR) showed slightly enhanced values, with the solar wind speed ranging between 423 km/s and 497 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching 5.7 nT, and the Bz magnetic field components fluctuating between -3.3 nT and 3.4 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to slowly returned to nominal values today and tomorrow due to the decaying wind streams influence of the south coronal hole.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet. In response to the slight enhanced solar wind parameters periods of unsettled conditions were also observed in Kp-NOAA and K-Dourbes index. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible periods of unsettled conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 041, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Nov 2020

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	091
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	035 - Na základě 26 stanic

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