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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 25 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Jan 2021	078	014
26 Jan 2021	077	007
27 Jan 2021	077	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. There are two numbered active regions on the solar disk. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2797 (alpha) remained stable. NOAA AR 2799 (beta) has shown some evidence of flux emergence and spot development and was responsible for a number of B-class flares. The previous NOAA AR 2798 has now decayed into a plage region. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a low probability of a C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron was at nominal levels, below the 1000 pfu threshold, during the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below this alert level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to continue to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed increased from values around 350 km/s to a maximum of 550 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength ranged between 1 and 12 nT. There was an extended period of negative Bz between 05 and 10 UT Jan 25 where Bz had a minimum value of -10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated in response to the high-speed stream that is currently influencing the Earth and is associated with the small, negative polarity coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on Jan 21.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the first half of the period, increasing to active levels from 06 UT (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values between 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels for the next 24 hours, with further isolated active intervals possible on Jan 25 as the Earth remains under the influence of the aforementioned high-speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 026, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Jan 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	021 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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