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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
26 Jan 2021	077	009
27 Jan 2021	076	003
28 Jan 2021	076	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. There are two numbered active regions on the solar disk. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2797 (alpha) remained stable. NOAA AR 2799 (beta) is about to rotate over the west limb. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a low probability of a C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron was at nominal levels, below the 1000 pfu threshold, during the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to gradually increase but is not expected to cross this alert level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained elevated with values increasing from around 470 km/s to a maximum of 630 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength decreased gradually from 11 nT to 3 nT. There was an extended period of negative Bz between 19 and 23 UT Jan 26 where Bz had a minimum value of -10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease as the influence from the high-speed stream that is currently influencing the Earth begins to wane.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at unsettled to active levels with an interval of minor storm levels between 21 and 00 UT (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values between 1-5.) Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours, with further isolated active intervals possible on Jan 26 as the Earth remains under the waning influence of the aforementioned high-speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 016, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 25 Jan 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	020
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	025 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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