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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jul 10 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Jul 2021	073	011
11 Jul 2021	075	011
12 Jul 2021	076	020

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2840, which has already rotated over the west limb, produced a C4 and B8 flare, peaking at 1725UT and 1457UT, respectively. NOAA AR 2839 (Catania sunspot group 12) was inactive decayed to a plage region. Newly numbered NOAA AR 2841 (Catania sunspot group 15) produced a series of low level B-flares. A new, as yet unnumbered, active region has rotated over the north-east limb but has not produced any significant flaring activity. A Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed varied between 300 and 350 km/s for most of the period, before increasing to values around 380 km/s from 0750UT. The total magnetic field had a maximum of 12 nT. The Bz varied between -9 and +8 nT, with an extended period of negative Bz between 2300UT and 0400UT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced from late July 11, due to the arrival of the High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the with the patchy negative polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to cross the central meridian on July 09.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-3) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 10 and 11 increasing to active conditions from July 12 due to the aforementioned HSS.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 015, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Jul 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	023
10cm sluneční tok	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	011 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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