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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Aug 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
06 Aug 2021	075	012
07 Aug 2021	076	024
08 Aug 2021	077	007

Bulletin

Beta regions NOAA 2850 and 2852 decayed to a plage, while NOAA 2851 showed flux emergence followed by decay. A new region is showing up behind the NE limb. The Sun did not produce any flares above low B level. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 35%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence reached moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Moderate levels are possible in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 280 and 320 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented towards the Sun, and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT. There were no extended periods with Bz below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible on August 6 and 7, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with the positive polarity northern polar crown coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on August 6 and 7 due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) is expected on August 8.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 011, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 05 Aug 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	038
10cm sluneční tok	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	024 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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