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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Aug 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Aug 2021	071	004
06 Aug 2021	071	011
07 Aug 2021	071	024

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA 2850 decayed further in the past 24 hours. The Sun did not produce any flares above low B level. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 15%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels for a short period in the past 24 hours, and is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. Moderate levels are possible in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 330 to 300 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented predominantly away from the Sun, and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible in the second half of August 6 and on August 7, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with the positive polarity northern polar crown coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on August 5 and the first half of August 6. Active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible in the second half of August 6 and on August 7, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 027, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Aug 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	014
10cm sluneční tok	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	017 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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