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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Dec 02 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Dec 2021	082	014
03 Dec 2021	080	020
04 Dec 2021	079	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels over the last 24 hours. There were three Active Regions (AR) visible on the Sun over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2900 has now rotated over the west solar limb and AR 2898 will soon follow. NOAA AR 2902 (beta magnetic configuration) has not produced any significant activity. Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed this threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed (DSCOVR) ranged between 450 and 580 km/s. The total magnetic fluctuated between 1 and 8 nT with a mostly negative Bz. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the coming days in response to this High Speed Stream (HSS) and may be further enhanced, due to the expected arrival of a HSS from the positive polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to traverse the central meridian on Nov 30.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values of 2-4 and 1-4, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active on Dec 02 and Dec 03, with minor storm conditions possible from late on Dec 02 due to the arrival of the expected HSS.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 037, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Dec 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	043
10cm sluneční tok	086
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	019
Odhadovaný Ap	021
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	039 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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