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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Dec 03 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Dec 2021	082	008
04 Dec 2021	080	014
05 Dec 2021	079	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels over the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2898 is about to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 2902 has shown signs of decay. Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.

A filament eruption was observed from 07UT Dec 03 originating in the north- west quadrant. An assessment of the likelihood of this to impact Earth will be made when coronagraph data become available. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed this threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence increased to be at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under the waning influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed (DSCOVR) decreased gradually from 530 to 420 km/s. The total magnetic field fluctuated between 1 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on Dec 03 and Dec 04, due to the influence of the HSS from the positive polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to traverse the central meridian on Nov 30.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values of 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods likely on Dec 03 and Dec 04, due to the expected HSS influence.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 027, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Dec 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	044
10cm sluneční tok	087
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	035 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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