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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Dec 13 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Dec 2021	080	009
14 Dec 2021	082	012
15 Dec 2021	082	012

Bulletin

Three active regions are visible on the Sun (newly emerged Catania 82 and Catania 84 as well as Catania 83/NOAA 2905, all beta magnetic field configuration). The most interesting is Catania 84, which has been source of activity on Dec 9 and 10 as seen in Stereo A, as well as the source of a C1.2-class flare recorded by GOES on Dec 12 20:55UT. C-class flares could be expected with a low probability in the next 24 hours for the same region.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters (ACE+DSCOVR) are in the slow regime, with what seems to be slight influence from a boundary crossing. The total magnetic field reached 9 nT, and its southward component, Bz, fluctuated between -6 nT and +5 nT in the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained slow, ranging between 290 km/s and 335 km/s. By the end of the next 24 hours they could be slightly enhanced due to the influence to the high-speed stream emanating from the small equatorial negative polarity coronal hole that appeared on Dec 12.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 0-2 and and K-BEL recorded values 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet with some unsettled periods in response to the influence of the wind stream associated with the small equatorial coronal hole.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 029, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Dec 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	014 - Na základě 11 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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