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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Jan 2022	115	016
10 Jan 2022	120	013
11 Jan 2022	122	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA Active Region 2924 (Catania group 1) produced low-level B-class flares. NOAA AR 2925 (Catania group 2) was stable. A new region near the central meridian (NOAA AR 2926 N30E02) began to emerge but is magnetically simple. A returning active region has rotated onto the solar disk (S10E75) and has been numbered NOAA AR2927. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares possible and a slight chance of an M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters showed the arrival of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS) from 17 UT Jan 08. The total magnetic field magnitude oscillated reached 20 nT with an extended period of negative Bz from 17 to 21 UT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched from the positive sector to the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun). The solar wind speed gradually increased from around 310 to 560 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced on Jan 09 and Jan 10, as the Earth remains under the influence of the HSS.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with two periods of minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp=5) from 18 UT, due to the enhanced negative Bz ahead of the arrival of the HSS. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled with possible active intervals on Jan 09 and Jan 10, due the HSS influence.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 056, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Jan 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	022
Odhadovaný Ap	020
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	051 - Na základě 12 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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