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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Jan 2022	104	002
15 Jan 2022	110	001
16 Jan 2022	120	001

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1.8 flare observed today at 01:15 UT. NOAA Active Regions (ARs) 2924-2928 (Catania groups 1-5) lost magnetic flux, while NOAA ARs 2929-2930 (Catania groups 6-7) and NOAA AR 2931 had some flux emergence during the last 24 hours. However, none of the above ARs produced any flare activity above B-class level the last 24 hours. The M-class flare, a double C1.3 and a C2.9 detected during the last 24 hours are from the AR expected to turn into view at N30. This AR has already produced a number of flares detected at a C-class level, even though it is mostly obstructed by the solar disk. As lower layers of the expected AR are turning into view, the flaring activity is expected to become more frequent and brighter. M-class flares might appear from this AR and there is a small chance of an X-flare, for the next 24 hours. There is also a small chance that one of the NOAA numbered ARs will produce an isolated C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 320 and 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 4 and 10 nT and its Bz component varied between -6 and 8 nT, during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to continue featuring a slow wind regime during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 0-1 and K BEL 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 098, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Jan 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	103
10cm sluneční tok	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	087 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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