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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Feb 2022	123	023
11 Feb 2022	123	026
12 Feb 2022	123	008

Bulletin

C class flares were observed from each of the three largest regions on disc. The largest flare was a C4 flare from region 2941 peaking at 4:38UT. Region 2941 (Catania group 26) is presenting the largest flaring risk although the activity in intermediate spots has decreased. While region 2939 (Catania group 22) is shrinking, some new flux emergence to the South of it (Catania group 29) and East of it (Catania group 30) is meanwhile observed. Region 2940 (Catania group 21) is relatively stable. Region 2934 has almost vanished. Flaring at C level is likely with a small chance for an isolated M flare.

No new Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

A recurrent equatorial negative polarity Coronal Hole is crossing the central meridian today and is expected to influence Solar wind at Earth from February 13 onwards.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold, following the enhanced Solar wind conditions, but decreased below the threshold following the CME shock arrival. It afterwards rose again above the threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the next period, and decreasing.

Slow Solar wind conditions were observed until the CME shock arrival at 20:10UT, later than originally anticipated. Solar wind speed jumped from 395km/s to 417km/s while the magnetic field magnitude jumped from 4nT to 7nT and also the density doubled at that time. The magnetic field has further increased to 12.5nT since, but speed seems to remains at around 420 km/s. The magnetic field did so far not show any signs of rotation, indicating we are currently and still not seeing the core of the CME. The core may still arrive or otherwise we may just continue to see the flanks of the CME. In any case, perturbed Solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24-48 hours as the CME passes. On February 13 we expect to see enhanced Solar wind conditions from the high speed stream of the equatorial coronal hole that is currently crossing the central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3 and local K Belgium 1-3). Despite the moderate Solar wind speed active conditions and possibly minor geomagnetic storm conditions may still occur depending on the magnetic field carried in the CME core.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 068, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	086
10cm sluneční tok	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	068 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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