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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 04 1251 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Feb 2022	127	032
05 Feb 2022	130	034
06 Feb 2022	134	015

Bulletin

There are five active region present on the disk, with NOAA region 2941 (Mag. configuration: beta) newly appeared on NE. Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region (AR) 2936 (Catania sunspot group 17, Mag. configuration: beta-gamma) has been most active, producing a C2.8 flare, peaking on Feb 04 06:06UT. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a possibility of M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class flares.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to be about threshold in the next 24 hours, as a response to ongoing ICME influence. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels during the next period.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions were under the influence of an ICME, possibly associated with the CME from Jan 29 23:00UT. At the beginning of the period the magnetic field magnitude diminished, until about Feb 03 23:00UT, were an increase in the values was observed. The highest value recorded was 13 nT and currently they remain elevated. The solar wind speed has reached the value of 580 km/s and remains enhanced. Bz attained a southward peak of -10nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle has predominantly been on negative (directed towards the Sun), with a few variations. A small positive polarity northern coronal hole is currently at central meridian. Over the next 24 hours we expect the solar wind conditions to remain enhanced due to ICME influences, as well as the expected high speed streams from the negative polarity coronal holes crossing central meridian on Feb 5and 6.

Over the past 24 hours, we have had minor storm conditions (K Dourbes 5), dropping to active and unsettled conditions. Storm conditions can be expected with a chance to reach Kp 6.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 109, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	024
Odhadovaný Ap	029
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	077 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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