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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 05 1253 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Feb 2022	130	011
06 Feb 2022	133	019
07 Feb 2022	135	011

Bulletin

There are five active region present on the disk, with NOAA region 2941 (Mag. configuration: beta) newly appeared on NE. Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region (AR) 2936 (Catania sunspot group 17, Mag. configuration: beta) has been most active, producing a C5.8 flare, peaking on Feb 04 15:51UT. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a chance of M-class flares.

A Coronal Mass Ejection associated to the C5.8 flare is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was crossed the 1000 pfu alert threshold on Feb 04 13:05UT. It is expected to be above threshold in the next 24 hours, as a response to ongoing ICME influence. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next period.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions were under the slowly waning influence of an ICME. The total magnetic field values dropped from 11 to 4 nT. Its southward component Bz had values between -10 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed decreased, down to 450 km/s. However, from Feb 05 07:00UT it started increasing again, as the expected high speed streams appear to start having an impact. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector sector (directed towards the Sun), with slight variations associated with the impact of the CME. Over the next 24 hours we expect the solar wind conditions to remain enhanced due to high speed streams from the negative polarity coronal holes crossing central meridian on Feb 2,3 and 4.

At the beginning of the past 24 hour period, we had minor storm conditions (Kp 5), dropping to quiet conditions by Feb 05 06:00UT. Active conditions could be expected as the effect of the compounded effects of the ICME and the high speed streams.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 098, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	127
10cm sluneční tok	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	033
Odhadovaný Ap	036
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	103 - Na základě 15 stanic

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