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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
27 Feb 2022	099	013
28 Feb 2022	099	012
01 Mar 2022	099	007

Bulletin

A region rotating into view from behind the southeast limb produced a C1.5 flare peaking at 06:26 UT on February 27. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 70%, mainly from three as yet unnumbered regions near the East limb, with a 10% chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and may exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR started increasing around 21:40 UT on February 26 from about 355 to a maximum of 470 km/s, with current values around 460 km/s. Around the same time, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) increased from about 2 to a maximum of 14 nT, with current values around 10 nT. Its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was mainly below -5 nT between 05:00 and 07:00 UT on February 27, with a maximal southward extension of Bz = -13 nT. These enhanced solar wind conditions reflect the predicted arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, and are expected to persist in the next few days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 27 and 28 and March 1, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5).

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 029, na základě 24 stanic.

Solární indexy za 26 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Odhadovaný Ap	001
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	026 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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