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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
26 Mar 2022	112	009
27 Mar 2022	112	027
28 Mar 2022	112	017

Bulletin

The solar activity was at low levels over the last 24 hours beside the number of magnetically complex sunspots visible on the disc view from Earth. The sunspot regions NOAA-AR 2974, 2975 and 2976 have a complex beta magnetic classification, but did not show any significant flaring activity. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible with a low chance of M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. The CME associated with M1.5-class flare on March 25 at 05:25 UTC was then observed as a very fainted halo CME in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images besides the fact that its main bulk was directed to the south-east. This indicates that the western flank component of this interplanetary CME may impact the Earth, and enhanced the solar wind conditions near-Earth environment on March 28 mid days.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remained at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters measured in the Earth environment (by DSCOVR) returned to slow the solar wind regime. The solar wind speed was decreasing from 465 km/s to 380 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field remained below 5.2 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -4.8 nT and 3.1 nT. The arrival of the high-speed streams coming from the large equatorial coronal hole that faced Earth on March 24 (positive magnetic polarity) is expected to impact the solar wind conditions in about later today and for the next couples of days.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet with few short periods of unsettled levels (K-BEL and NOAA-Kp recorded values of 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettle then become active with possible period of minor storm conditions with the arrival of the fast solar wind associated to the large equatorial coronal hole that faced Earth on March 24.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 055, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 25 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	057
10cm sluneční tok	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	047 - Na základě 32 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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