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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Mar 2022	104	006
03 Mar 2022	106	008
04 Mar 2022	110	012

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with three C-class flares detected from three different Active Regions (AR): NOAA AR 2957, 2958 (Catania groups 47 and 48) and a yet unnumbered AR at S22E87. The rest of the AR did not produce any flare activity above the B-class level. NOAA AR 2957 is expected to produce more C-class flares in the next 24 hours as it has undergone significant flux emergence during the last 24 hours. The magnetic configuration of the AR at S22E87 cannot yet be determined, however, it might produce more C-class flares in the coming 24 hours as it appears to be active. NOAA AR 2956 and 2958 might produce an isolated C-class event in the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have been observed in the available coronagraph data. A CME detected by CACTUS on 28/2 23:50 UT is judged to be back-sided.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) are gradually returning to a slow solar wind regime. The SW speed gradually decreased from 560 to 450 km/s. The total magnetic field (Btot) gradually dropped from 5 to 1 nT during the last 24 hours, while its Bz component initially varied between -4 and 4 nT but now is close to zero. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost always positive (directed away from the Sun) in the last 24 hours. SW conditions are expected to become typical of the slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp index 1-2) and locally quiet to moderate (K-BEL index 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 074, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	070
10cm sluneční tok	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	011
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	066 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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