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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 29 1301 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Mar 2022	156	009
30 Mar 2022	155	053
31 Mar 2022	170	028

Bulletin

The solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with the highest flare recorded being a M2.2 class flare, peak time March 29th 01:11UT, from region NOAA 2975. The sunspot regions NOAA AR 2975 and 2978 have complex magnetic configurations. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible with a chance of M-class flares and a slight possibility of X-class flares.

The possible Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday was detected by CACTus as a partial halo with start time March 28th 12:00UT. After analysis the estimated speed was found to be around 735 km/s and estimated time of arrival early March 31st. This CME is followed by a partial halo CME that has been detected by CACTus with reported start time March 28th 20:24UT. After analysis the estimated speed was found to be around 784 km/s and estimated time of arrival late March 31st. It was preceded by an M1.0-class flare with a peak time 19:23UT, where the region of origin was NOAA 2975. The proton flux of >10MeV exceeded the 10pfu threshold on march 28th 13:25UT. This was the result of the M4.0 class flare for region NOAA 2975, peak time March 28th 11:29UT, in combination with the radio bursts of type II (11:23UT) and type IV (11:37UT) that followed. The proton flux has been gradually decreasing over the past 24 hours., however, the arrival of the expected CMEs has the potential to increase its value. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to be about threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to increase in the next 24 hours.

The proton flux of >10MeV exceeded the 10pfu threshold on march 28th 13:25UT. This was the result of the M4.0 class flare for region NOAA 2975, peak time March 28th 11:29UT, in combination with the radio bursts of type II (11:23UT) and type IV (11:37UT) that followed. The proton flux has been gradually decreasing over the past 24 hours., however, the arrival of the expected CMEs has the potential to increase its value. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to be about threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to increase in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field values fluctuated between 1 and 5 nT. Its southward component Bz had values between -4 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed decreased, with alues from 380 to 530 km/s.. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied, in the positive sector. A negative polarity southern coronal hole is present SE. Over the next 24 hours we expect the solar wind conditions to remain about thos levels, as we are waiting for the influence of the two CMEs about March 31st.

Over the past 24 hours, we had quiet conditions (K BEL=Kp=2). Over the next 24 hours, active regions can be expected, with a chance of minor storm conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 136, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	130 - Na základě 30 stanic

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