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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 08 1300 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Mar 2022	120	005
09 Mar 2022	118	005
10 Mar 2022	116	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels with two C-class flares over the past 24 hours. There are seven numbered active regions on the visible disc (5 active regions numbered by NOAA and Catania sunspot groups 52 and 53). The largest and most complex active region on disc, NOAA 2960, has increased its number of trailing spots and is now classified as beta-gamma. Despite its complexity, this region has remained stable and inactive. NOAA 2957 has lost some of its trailing spots and remained inactive beta. NOAA 2961 (previously alpha) has increased its magnetic complexity (now classifies as beta) and has produced a C1.1-class flare with peak time 15:04 UT on March 7th. Catania sunspot group 50 has remained stable and is now numbered as NOAA 2963 (beta). A C1.8-class flare (peak time 20:42 UT on March 7th) was produced from behind the north-east limb. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 24 hours with 60% chance for C-class flaring.

A filament eruption occurred around 23 UT on March 6th in the north-west solar quadrant near plage region NOAA 2958. The eruption produced a very slow partial halo CME with a primary component directed to the north-west. A glancing blow from this CME can be expected to reach Earth early on March 11th. Another large filament erupted near the southwest limb around 14 UT on March 7th and the remaining of the filament near plage region NOAA 2958 erupted again before 04 UT on March 8th. The CMEs related to those eruptions are currently estimated to not have Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain mostly above the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has reached moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have remained under the waning influence of a high-speed stream from a weak negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 426 to 532 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to return towards background slow solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours as the influence of the high-speed stream diminishes.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods. Should the glancing blow from the CME related to the filament eruption on March 6th arrive it would result in unsettled conditions on March 11th with a minor probability for isolated active periods.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 084, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	108
10cm sluneční tok	118
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	085 - Na základě 27 stanic

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