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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 04 1242 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Apr 2022	136	012
05 Apr 2022	135	011
06 Apr 2022	135	027

Bulletin

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with eleven C-class flares produced mainly from active regions NOAA 2976 (beta) and NOAA 2984 (beta), both close to the west limb. Active region NOAA 2975 (beta-gamma) has produced a few low C-class flares from behind the west limb. The remaining notable active regions on the visible solar disc, NOAA 2978 and NOAA 2981 have reduced the complexity of their underlying photospheric magnetic field. They are now classified as magnetic type beta and have remained inactive. A new magnetically simple active region, NOAA 2985 (alpha), has shown some minor flaring activity from the south-eastern quadrant. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be predominantly at low levels for the next 24 hours with decreasing chances for M-class flaring.

A glancing blow from the full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) detected in LASCO C2 at 13:48UTC on April 2nd could reach Earth this afternoon with a rather low confidence of arrival. The CME was related to a flaring activity from the west limb, hence only a minor impact is expected should it reach the Earth. A full halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 coronagraph data at 16:36 UT on April 3rd, following a large filament eruption lifting off from the south-western quadrant of the solar disk. The CME has a projected speed of about 650km/s as seen by STEREO COR2 and is expected to arrive at Earth in the early morning of April 6th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has returned to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, subject to the flaring activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was predominantly above the 1000 pfu threshold on April 3rd and mostly beneath the 1000 pfu threshold today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold within the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has reached moderate levels and is expected to return to nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the influence of solar wind structures and the potential influence of a high speed stream. The solar wind velocity was elevated in the range of 440 to 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced with a maximum value of 8 nT and a minimum Bz of -7.8 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the waning influence of the high-speed stream and with the minor chance for a glancing blow arrival from the April 2nd CME.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to unsettled with globally two active periods registered between last midnight and 06:00 UT on April 4th. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a minor possibility for an isolated active period should a glancing blow from the April 2nd halo CME arrive to Earth. Active conditions and minor geomagnetic storm can be expected on April 6th with the expected arrival of the halo CME related to the large filament eruption from April 3rd.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 069, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	105 - Na základě 23 stanic

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