Prohlížíte si archiv pondělí 14. března 2022

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Mar 2022	123	031
15 Mar 2022	125	011
16 Mar 2022	125	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible solar disc, two with alpha magnetic field configuration and two with beta. There have been six C-class flares and one M2.0 flare in the past 24 hours. The M2.0 flare peaked at 08:40 UT and it originated in NOAA AR 2965, which has been the AR most active lately (AR 2964 produced C-class flares yesterday). More C- and M-class flares can be expected.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery in the past 24 hours. There is still no coronagraph data to infer if the M2.0 flare was associated with a CME, NOAA AR 2965 is located at central meridian so it could be Earth directed if there was one.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was recorded well under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so in next 24 hours.

The Earth is still inside the ICME that arrived yesterday. The magnetic field is around 20 nT, with positive Bz, the solar wind speed is at 420 km/s. Over the past 24 hours the magnetic field reached 25 nT, with several periods of negative Bz. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached moderate storm levels (K_Bel = 6 and Kp = 6) due to the ICME. For the next 24 hours, until the ICME passes we expect more disturbed geomagnetic conditions, probably active storm levels (minor and moderate storms remain possible if Bz turns negative).

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 077, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	074
AK Wingst	033
Odhadovaný Ap	040
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	080 - Na základě 26 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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