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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 15 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Mar 2022	115	007
16 Mar 2022	117	007
17 Mar 2022	119	007

Bulletin

There are five active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 2965 has evolved into a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration and it has produced five C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The strongest was a C5.3 flare, peaking at 22:14 UT, on 14 March. The other active regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta) and have not produced any significant flares. For the next 24 hours, more C-class flares are expected, and M-class flares are possible.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery in the past 24 hours. Two wide CMEs (angular width about 90 degrees) erupted on 14 March (at 17:36 UT and 19:12 UT observed by SOHO/LASCO C2), but they seem to be backsided and will not influence the Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was recorded well under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was normal and is expected to remain so in next 24 hours.

The Earth is no longer under the effect of the ICME from 10 March. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 7 nT (with negative polarity, towards the Sun), with positive Bz, the solar wind speed is at 420 km/s. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet (K_Bel = 1-3 and Kp = 1-2) . Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 068, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	017
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	077 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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