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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 01 1302 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Apr 2022	149	020
02 Apr 2022	152	016
03 Apr 2022	157	016

Bulletin

Solar activity has been high over the past 24 hours. The flare of greatest X-ray output has been the M9.5-class flare, peak time March 31st 18:35UT, region of origin 2975. This continues to be the most magnetically complex active region on disk, among the seven regions present on the Sun. AR 2978 has been the origin of eruptive events as well ans should be monitored. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares will most likely happen, M-class flares can be expected and X-ray flares cannot be excluded.

The M9.5-class flare was associated with a type II and type IV radio emission, on March 31st 18:34UT and 18:41UT respectively as well as a coronal wave. Plasma ejecta have also been observed from that region, on April 1st 03:07UT. An eruption is seen in AIA 304 from region 2978 March 31st 21:09UT.

The proton flux of >10MeV has been gradually decreasing over the past 24 hours. It is expected to continue doing so, depending flaring activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase over the next 24 hours, depending any possible impact from the CME associated with the X1.3 flare from March 30th. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at about levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions reflect the passage of CMEs on March 28th. The magnetic field values ranged between 4 to 23nT. Over the past 24 hours, Bz had values between -9 and +17 nT. The solar wind speed decreased to 439 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the positive sector (away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind to reflect enhanced conditions.

Over the past 24 hours, active geomagnetic conditions were recorded between times from the start of the window until March 31st 19:00 and then from April 01 06:00UT (KBel-Kp=4). Over the next 24 hours, the unsettled to active conditions can be expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 108, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	028
Odhadovaný Ap	030
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	124 - Na základě 25 stanic

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