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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 02 1247 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Apr 2022	147	024
03 Apr 2022	149	021
04 Apr 2022	150	012

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate over the past 24 hours. The flare of greatest X-ray output has been the M2.9-class flare, peak time April 2nd 02:56UTC, active region (AR) of origin NOAA 2975. This region is about to rotate off the visible solar disc. ARs 2978 and 2981 exhibit have been the origin of eruptive events as well and should be monitored. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares will most likely happen, M-class flares are possible and to a lesser extend and X-ray flares.

Currently no previously reported Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed in coronagraphic data.

The proton flux of >10MeV has decreased further over the past 24 hours. It is expected to continue doing so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about and possibly cross the threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values decreased to 2 nT, while Bz had values between -10 and +9 nT. The solar wind speed increased at April 2nd 01:00UTc, reaching values of 591 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the negative sector (towards the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind to reflect waning effects of CME passage as we are expecting the high speed streams fro the two coronal holes around April 3rd.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were mainly unsettled to active, with a period of minor storm conditions April 02nd 03:00-06:00UTC (Kp=5). Over the next 24 hours, unsettled to active conditions can be expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 109, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	116
10cm sluneční tok	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	107 - Na základě 12 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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