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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 15 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Apr 2022	103	021
16 Apr 2022	108	013
17 Apr 2022	110	008

Bulletin

During last 24 hours several C-class flares and one M-class flare were reported, originating from the active region situated behind the East solar limb. We can expect more flaring activity of the C-class level and also isolated M-class flares as this region will rotate to the visible side of the solar discs (as seen from Earth). The M 1.2 class flare peaked at 11:01 UT today while its source region was behind the East solar limb. The coronagraph data are still not available, however, as the source region was not on the visible side od the solar disc, the possibly associated CME will not be Earth-directed. Several CMEs were reported during last 24 hours but neither of them is expected to arrive to Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and we expect that it will remain so in the coming hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was, during last 24 hours, fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold. We do not expect significant increase above the 1000 pfu threshold in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal to moderate level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

Earth is presently in the post CME flow with the somewhat elevated solar wind speed (about 500 km/s) and the magnetic field amplitude (about 10 nT). During the passage of the complex ICME structure, at about 12:30 UT on April 13, the solar wind velocity suddenly increased from about 460 to 560 km/s. At the same time the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned to negative value (down to -11 nT ) and that resulted in disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Few intervals of K=5 were reported by local station at Dourbes, and NOAA reported few intervals of Kp=5 and one interval of the Kp=6. The geomagnetic conditions are presently active to unsettled and we expect them to stay so in the comming hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 041, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	056
AK Wingst	036
Odhadovaný Ap	038
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	037 - Na základě 36 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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