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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 16 1248 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
16 Apr 2022	110	011
17 Apr 2022	115	006
18 Apr 2022	117	006

Bulletin

During last 24 hours number of C-class flares and two M-class flare were reported, originating from the active region which just started its rotation across the East solar limb (previously numbered as NOAA AR 2975). We can expect more flaring activity of the C-class level and also M-class level as this region rotates to the visible side of the solar discs as seen from Earth. Although during last 24 hours some fast and wide CMEs were reported, their source region was behind the East solar limb, and they are not expected to arrive to Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold, we expect them to remain on these levels in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is presently 510 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 8 nT. During last 24 hours the Earth was under influence of the rather fast solar wind, up to 630 km/s as observed by DSCOVR, and 750 km/s as reported by SOHOS/CELIAS. The in situ observations indicate that might have been the fast solar wind from the positive polarity coronal hole that was expected early this morning. However, the in situ signatures are not very clear, which might be due to the point that the Earth was still under the influence of the ICME when the wind speed increase started. During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were active to unsettled. We expect the unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 051, na základě 22 stanic.

Solární indexy za 15 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	025
Odhadovaný Ap	025
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	042 - Na základě 32 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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