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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 01 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 May 2022	120	012
02 May 2022	120	007
03 May 2022	120	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours Catania sunspots 82 (NOAA active region 2994) remained active and produced an X1.1-class flare on April 30 at 13:47 UTC. This flare was associated with a Type II Radio Burst Emissions and a coronal mass ejection. Then the flaring activity has decreased while the very active region Catania sunspots 82 (NOAA active region 2994) turned around the west limb. The remaining sunspot regions on the visible disk were comparatively quiet and stable. The flaring activity is expected to remain mostly quiet with a chance of C-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. Several CMEs were associated to the flares in Catania sunspots 82 (NOAA active region 2994) located on the west limb. However due to the location of this region, no CME components are expected to be geoeffective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux slowly returned to background levels after the slight increased due to the M1.2-class flare from Catania sunspot group 85 (NOAA active region 2996) on April 29 at 07:42 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to be moderate and may cross the threshold in the next 24 hours due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence returned to nominal values in the past 24 hours and is expected remained nominal in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters in Earth environment (as recorded by DSCOVR) continued to be slightly elevated due to the influence of the fast solar wind speed streams associated with the equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) that reached the central meridian on April 26. The solar wind speed ranged between 435 km/s and 546 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude slowly decreased and showed values below 7 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly negative and fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist as long as Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated with the coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle due to the slightly enhanced the solar wind conditions (NOAA Kp and local K-Belgium 2-3). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet with periods of unsettled condition as long as Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated with the coronal hole.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 037, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	020
Odhadovaný Ap	020
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	051 - Na základě 35 stanic

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