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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 19 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 May 2022	182	011
20 May 2022	184	009
21 May 2022	186	009

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M5 event detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3017 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania group 15) at 19 May 07:19 UT and two M1 events from NOAA AR 3014 (magnetic configuration Beta-Ganna-Delta, Catania group 14) at 18 May 22:02 and 19 May 10:20 UT. There were also numerous C-class flares mostly from NOAA AR 3014 in the last 24 hours. More C-class flares are almost certain to occur and one or more isolated M-class flares are likely in the next 24 hours. There is also a small chance of an X-class flare during the next 24 hours.

Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) automatically detected by CACTus on 18 May at 10:24 and 12:12 UT are estimated to be back-sided, hence no geo- effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) are gradually returning to a typical slow SW regime. The SW speed remained relatively high during the last 24 hours, as it varied between 420 and 540 km/s. During the same period the total magnetic field strength remained low with values between 3 and 7 nT, while its Bz component varied between -6 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected to very gradually slow down and the magnetic field to retain its low values in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally moderate (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain moderate during the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 143, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 May 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	162
10cm sluneční tok	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	///
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	126 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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