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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jun 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Jun 2022	150	019
16 Jun 2022	145	014
17 Jun 2022	145	010

Bulletin

There are presently seven numbered active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disc as seen from Earth. Two active regions (NOAA AR 3031 and 3032) have beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field, and the other six have beta configuration. However, the flaring activity was rather low during the last 24 hours, with only several low C-class flares reported. In the coming hours we can expect flaring activity at the C-class level, and also isolated M-class flares. During last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed CMEs reported.

Similar to last several days, during last 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold, we expect them to remain on these levels in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

The in situ observations by DSCOVR show arrival of the shock, at about 04:00 UT this morning. This shock wave is associated with the CME that was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:48 UT on June 13. The solar wind velocity is presently 600 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field is about 8 nT. The solar wind originating from the equatorial positive polarity coronal hole is expected at Earth tomorrow, June 15. The arrival of the shock wave induced active geomagnetic conditions this morning. The local station at Dourbes reported K=4 and NOAA reported Kp=4. The geomagnetic conditions are presently unsettled and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours, but the isolated intervals of the active conditions are possible. The arrival of the fast solar wind from the equatorial coronal hole that is expected tomorrow, could induce disturbed geomagnetic conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 159, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Jun 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	123
10cm sluneční tok	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	132 - Na základě 27 stanic

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