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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 24 1257 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
24 May 2022	158	006
25 May 2022	157	005
26 May 2022	158	011

Bulletin

There are nine active regions on the visible solar disc. Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been low, with the flare of the largest X-ray output the C4.5-class flare, peak time May 24 09:22UTC, from NOAA AR 3017. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with M-class flares remain possible and a slight chance of X-class flares.

The C5.2-class flare, peak time May 23 11:05UTC,from NOAA AR 3017, was followed by a slow CME first seen in Stereo A on May 23 11:53UT. Analysis showed confidence of arrival being very small, if any, a glancing blow of a minor impact would expected early May 29.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at the 1000 pfu threshold on May 23 16:40UTC. It can be expected to be above threshold the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values fluctuated between 2 and 5nT, while Bz had values between -3 and +4 nT. The solar wind speed had values between 400 and 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the positive sector (away from the Sun). A southern negative polarity coronal hole is presently on central meridian. Effects from its high speed stream can be expected from May 27, which will be combined to those expected on May 26. Over the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind to continue reflecting waning effects of high speed streams.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 146, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 May 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	193
10cm sluneční tok	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	146 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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