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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 May 25 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 May 2022	149	007
26 May 2022	151	012
27 May 2022	155	011

Bulletin

There are seven active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA ARs 3010 and 3011 having rotated off and NOAA AR 3023 and 3024 having rotated on visible disc. Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been low, with the flare of the largest X-ray output the C5.2-class flare, peak time May 24 22:17UTC, from NOAA AR 3023. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with M-class flares remain possible.

The C5.2-class flare was associated with two filament eruptions observed in AIA 304 data on the Eastern limb and a partial-halo CME (reported by the CACTus software) with time of occurrence May 24 22:36UTC with projected plane-of-the-sky speed of about 408 km/s. The CME was first time observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 at 23:12 UTC and in the STEREO A/COR2 at 23:09 UTC. Another CME can be observed in STEREO A/COR2 on May 25 04:09UTC and SOHO/LASCO C2 at 04:00 UTC. Around that time some activity can be seen around former NOAA AR 3016, but it is not evident that that was the source region. For both CMEs it is currently believed that the bulk will not be Earth directed but a shock arrival cannot be excluded.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was just under the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It can be expected to be about threshold the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values fluctuated between 2 and 9nT, while Bz had values between -6 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed fluctuated around 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the positive sector (away from the Sun). Effects from its high speed stream of what looks like an elongated coronal hole that first crossed central meridian on May 23 can be expected to start arriving over the next 24 hours, lasting for a number of days.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with one unsettled period May 25 07:00-08:00UTC (K Dourbes=3). Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 109, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 May 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	198
10cm sluneční tok	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	135 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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