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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jul 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Jul 2022	138	006
10 Jul 2022	145	005
11 Jul 2022	140	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M2 event detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3053 (Catania group 72) at 8 July 20:49 UT. There were also numerous C-class flares, mostly from NOAA (AR) 3053 and 3055 (Catania groups 72 and 78). More C-class flare activity is expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3053 and 3055. There is also a small chance that NOAA AR 3053 will produce another M-class flare.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 images, launched at 8 Jult 20:50 UT. It is possibly geo-effective and is expected to arrive on 12 July.

A small positive polarity Coronal Hole (CH) has crossed the Solar central meridian in the last 24 hours. An additional, larger, equatorial, also positive polarity, CH is now crossing the central meridian. This second CH is expected to have a much larger effect.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions became typical of the slow SW regime. The effects of the CME that arrived on 7 July appear to now be over as the SW speed has dropped to 320 km/s from the 430 km/s that was 24 hours ago. The magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 12 to 2 nT, while its Bz component fluctuated from -7 to 8 nT on 8 July but so far today remains above zero and up to 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached globally moderate (NOAA Kp 0-3) and locally active (K Doubres 1-4) levels during the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to drop to quiet levels both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 096, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Jul 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	119
10cm sluneční tok	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	024
Odhadovaný Ap	022
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	093 - Na základě 33 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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