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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Aug 05 1241 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Aug 2022	112	013
06 Aug 2022	112	010
07 Aug 2022	112	015

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. Most of the flaring activity originated from NOAA AR 3068 (beta) which produced two low C-class flares and a C4.9-class flare with peak time 06:44 UTC on Aug 5th. The largest flare was an impulsive C5.5 with peak time 06:07 UTC on Aug 5th produced by an unnumbered region (magnetic type beta) in the vicinity of NOAA AR 3068 near S34W32. Another new active region, NOAA 3072 (beta), emerged close to NOAA AR 3068, but so far has remained quiet. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low levels with probable C-class flaring.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. No CME was detected at the time of the type II radio-burst related to the C6.9-class with peak time 17:08 UTC on Aug 3rd. Another type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1300 k/s was observed at 06:57 UTC this morning following the C4.9-class flare from NOAA AR 3068. At the time of writing no coronagraph imagery data is available for this event yet and any possible CME impacts will be analysed as the data comes in later.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so, but could reach the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours in the wake of the waning high speed stream. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were on the slow return towards background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity continued to decline with values between 471 km/s and 387 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was overall weak with a slight enhancement around 00:45 UTC on Aug 5th when it shortly flipped orientation (from sunward to earthward) and reached a maximum value of 9.2 nT. The corresponding minimum Bz was -7.8 nT. Apart of the short period around midnight UTC the B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Over the next 24 hours the solar wind parameters are expected to continued their decrease towards slow solar wind condition. From Aug 7th onwards new high speed stream arrival might be expected, first from a small positive polarity coronal hole and later on from a negative polarity coronal hole which is currently reaching the central meridian.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 077, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Aug 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	051
10cm sluneční tok	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	047 - Na základě 36 stanic

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