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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jul 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Jul 2022	094	015
31 Jul 2022	094	031
01 Aug 2022	094	014

Bulletin

X-ray flux remained below C class level. NOAA active region 3067 decayed into plage and also NOAA active region 3066 lost almost all spots. The unipolar NOAA active region 3062 remained stable while spreading of the footpoints occurred in the fairly new NOAA active region 3068, which was otherwise inactive. Flaring at C level is not very likely but remains quite possible over the next days.

A partial halo CME is visible in SoHO LASCO C2 coronagraph images from 2:24UTC onwards. The CME is directed towards the south-east. No associated on-disc signatures are detected and the CME is hence assessed as being on the far-side. A weaker northward directed CME can be seen around the same time, which is likely related to a filament eruption from the north-eastern quadrant (visible in SDO AIA 304 images around 1:39UTC). But this is too narrow and too much north to affect Earth. Hence no Earth directed CMEs have been identified.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels following a slow declining trend.

An extension of the (negative polarity) south polar coronal hole is currently starting to cross the central meridian. It may influence near- Earth Solar wind conditions around July 3. Slow Solar wind conditions were observed with (yet) no clear signs of the expected transition region and upcoming high speed stream. Solar wind speed was in the 320-390km/s range. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of mostly between 5-8nT with a variable north-south component. The interplanetary magnetic field is still stably connected to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). We are still expecting today a switch into the positive sector (field away from the Sun), followed by an increase in Solar wind speed associated to the high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26. As this feature is later than expected, the wind speed is not expected to reach far over 500 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-2). Active conditions are expected over the next days associated to the interaction region and high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 045, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Jul 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	047 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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