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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jul 31 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
31 Jul 2022	092	019
01 Aug 2022	092	025
02 Aug 2022	092	007

Bulletin

X-ray flux remained below C class level. The unipolar NOAA active region 3062 remained stable as it is approaching the west limb while the bipolar NOAA active region 3068 has somewhat consolidated. Flaring at C level is not very likely but remains possible over the next days.

No Earth directed CMEs have been identified in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just briefly touched the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels.

An extension of the (negative polarity) south polar coronal hole has started to cross the central meridian. It may influence near-Earth Solar wind conditions around July 3.

Essentially slow Solar wind conditions were observed. Solar wind speed was in the 320-390km/s range. The interplanetary magnetic field has become enhanced though, reaching 13nT currently with a variable north-south component. This could possibly be associated to the compression region ahead of the (later than) expected high speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field is still connected to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). We are still expecting today a switch into the positive sector (field away from the Sun), followed by an increase in Solar wind speed associated to the high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26. As this feature is later than expected, the wind speed is not expected to reach far over 500 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Active conditions are expected over the next days associated to the interaction region and high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 036, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Jul 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	091
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	046 - Na základě 28 stanic

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