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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Aug 18 1239 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Aug 2022	120	023
19 Aug 2022	118	025
20 Aug 2022	116	016

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 was responsible for most of the flaring activity, the strongest of which were an M2.0 and M1.0 flare, peaking on August 17 at 13:45 UT and 14:52 UT, respectively. The region also produced 2 further M1 flares on the morning of August 18, with an associated Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3082 and NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 decayed and was quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated with the M2 and M1 flares, produced by NOAA AR3078. Due to the close timing of these events the CMEs are difficult to distinguish in the coronagraph imagery. The first signature is observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 14:30 UT on August 17, with one eruption directed towards the south east and the other more directed towards the south. Given the location of the source region, a glancing blow at Earth may be expected early on August 20.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the period and decreases rapidly due to the geomagnetic storm from 19 UT. It is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters were enhanced, reflecting the passing of the ICME and the influence of the expected high speed stream. The value of the total magnetic field increased to 17nT. There was a prolonged period of negative Bz between 16UT and 20UT, with a minimum value of -17nT reached. The solar wind speed gradually increased from 420 to 600 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was mostly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the combination of effects from the current ICME, the possible arrival of another ICME and the effects of the high-speed stream.

Geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels globally (NOAA Kp=6) and minor storm levels locally at Dourbes (k=5) between 18UT and midnight. Geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours are expected to be Active to minor storm conditions, with further intervals of moderate storm conditions possible, due to the possible arrival of more ICMEs on August 18 and 19, in combination with high-speed stream effects.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 098, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Aug 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	029
Odhadovaný Ap	027
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	120 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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