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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Aug 19 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Aug 2022	112	013
20 Aug 2022	107	034
21 Aug 2022	105	015

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 is the most complex region on disk and was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including two M-class flares: an impulsive M1.3 and a long duration M1.6, peaking on August 18 at 14:13 UT and August 19 at 04:44 UT, respectively. The M1.6 flare was also associated with a Type II and Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 and NOAA AR 3082 decayed and were mostly quiet. A new region, NOAA AR3084, emerged near the central meridian, but is small and with a simple magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

A coronal mass ejection (CME), originating from NOAA AR3078 is first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 11:00 UT on August 18. This event was also associated with a Type II radio emission (speed 749 km/s). Although predominantly directed to the south west, a weak partial-halo shock signature can also be seen. Therefore a glancing blow at Earth may be expected early on August 21. Two further possible CMEs are being investigated: firstly, a dimming associated with the same region, seen in SDO/AIA 193 from 22:16 UT August 18 and secondly, an eruption at 04:45UT August 19 (associated with the reported M1.6 flare). These CMEs will be analysed when the coronagraph data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed remained enhanced from the influence of the expected high speed stream, decreasing slightly from 640 km/s to 540 km/s. The value of the total magnetic field decreased from 10nT to 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -8nT. The magnetic field orientation was mostly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the combination of effects from the high-speed stream and possible further predicted ICME glancing blows, from the CMEs observed on August 16 and 17.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp=5) and locally at Dourbes (k=5) on August 18. From 00UT on August 19, the conditions returned to quiet to unsettled levels. Geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours are expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with further intervals of minor storm conditions possible, due to the possible arrival of more ICMEs on August 19 and 20, in combination with high-speed stream effects.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 096, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Aug 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	036
Odhadovaný Ap	035
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	098 - Na základě 24 stanic

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