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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Sep 30 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Sep 2022	140	025
01 Oct 2022	145	042
02 Oct 2022	149	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare observed was an M1 flare, from beyond the north-east limb, peaking on September 30 at 04:01 UT. There were also multiple C-class flares associated with the active region just beyond the north-east limb that is expected to rotate onto the solar disk in the coming days. This approaching region also produced a Type II radio burst on September 29 at 11:59 UT. A number of C-class flares were produced by Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 3107), Catania group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) and Catania group 42 (NOAA AR 3105). Catania group 50 (NOAA AR 3111) was quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible and a slight chance for an X-class flare, particularly from the active region that is about to rotate onto the disk.

No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed remained enhanced over the period, with values between 460 and 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude oscillated around 5 nT on September 29, increasing to a maximum of 15 nT at 7 UT. The magnetic field phi angle switched from being in the negative sector to the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) from 12 UT September 29. The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become further enhanced in response to a possible CME glancing blow on October 01 and the high speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on September 27.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4). Geomagnetic condition are expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next days, with moderate storm conditions possible, due to the aforementioned high speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 073, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Sep 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	100
10cm sluneční tok	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	070 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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