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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Sep 03 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Sep 2022	130	029
04 Sep 2022	128	040
05 Sep 2022	126	024

Bulletin

NOAA AR 3089 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) has produced numerous C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a C3.8 flare peaking at 17:16 UT on 2 September. More C-class flares can be expected, and M-class flares are possible.

A CME of about 70 degrees angular width and speed around 670 km/s was detected at 19:24 UT on 2 September. The CME originated from a filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the Sun, close to AR 3093. It is mostly directed to the south, but a glancing blow at the Earth is possible on 5 September.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark, and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at the Earth was mostly slow in the last 24 hours around 450 km/s, with an interplanetary magnetic field about 10 nT. Around midnight, there was a period of several hours of negative Bz and a sector boundary crossing, in which the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field changed from towards to away (negative to positive). Around 08 UT, the solar wind speed started to increase, and it is now close to 550 km/s, most likely marking an early arrival of the high speed solar wind from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole, that was expected for tomorrow.

Active conditions were detected locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and minor storm conditions at planetary levels (Kp up to 5). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 065, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Sep 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	013
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	061 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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