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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Nov 29 1241 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Nov 2022	106	016
30 Nov 2022	105	015
01 Dec 2022	105	029

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with two C-class flares reported in the past 24 hours. NOAA ARs 3151 and 3152 each produced a C1 flare. NOAA AR 3151 is expected to rotate over the west limb in the next day. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a low chance of C-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours but is expected to increase and cross the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed was elevated with values ranging between 515 and 680 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5 and 10 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced over the next day, due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream. A further enhancement is expected from Dec 01 associated with the large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, which began to transit the central meridian on November 28.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 2-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active on Nov 29 to Nov 30. From December 01, minor storm conditions are possible in response to the next expected high-speed stream arrival.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 032, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Nov 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	067
10cm sluneční tok	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	023
Odhadovaný Ap	026
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	053 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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